LandColt Trading

Triple-A Rating Doesn't Mean &*#@ in the State of Maryland

What is going on with my state of Maryland??

Luv Guv Marty O'Malley wants to impose a sales tax on gas--yeah, a 6 percent sales tax on the already 23.5 cents the state already charges.  O'Malley says it needs the cash because the roads need repair.

Now--to those outside of Maryland, let's take a look at the gems this incompetent administration has implemented over the past few years:

• A Millionaire's Tax.  Yeah, the state decided to show those 1% bastards that wealth distribution is the only way to go.  Of course, when 1/3 of the 7-digit earners left the state, the legislature couldn't understand why.  Know what happens when you tax something that isn't there--yeah, you get ZERO.
• Raise the tolls.  Another genius move and Annapolis sold the state's residents it's in their best interest because the Bay Bridge will probably fall apart--but only when you're driving across the 4.5 mile span.
• University cuts.  Oh, this is the best one.  The school raises tuition, tells illegal aliens they can go there at in-state tuition costs, cuts 8 teams from the athletic department, but is still able to build a mansion for the President of the school.  It is a state school, right????  Last time I checked, The University of Maryland isn't in the Ivy League.

And, now this.  Maryland is one of only 13 states in the country holding a AAA rating.  It is tops in the nation for percentage of the population with a bachelor's degree, or higher.  And, boasts the wealthiest county in the entire country.  Yet--it still bleeds money and continues to ask for more.

You would think with so many smart people in the Free State, there would be more of an uprising. 

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Time To Forgive and Forget Greek Debt? - Wake-Up Call for 1/31

Hello class!  Here is today's LandColt Trading Wake-Up Call for Tuesday, January 31st.  As always, feel free to forward to a friend.  And, be sure to sign-up for your own FREE subscription by sending an email to info@LandColtTrading.com with the word 'SUBSCRIBE' in the subject line.

Time To Forgive and Forget Greek Debt?
By: Kenneth Polcari, Expert Contributor

Today promises to be a busier day – at least from a news perspective.  The airwaves will be hit with earnings announcements and global macroeconomic announcements…appears that risk appetite is back on today with futures +6, Gold +10 and a firmer Euro in early morning trade.

We are trending at 1315, still stuck in the 1300/1325 range - back and forth, back and forth.  Mkt consolidating getting ready for the next move; the question is which way will that move be? 

We have seen a 15% move up from the November lows of 1158.  Since mid-December, we have not had any significant pullback.  A 23.6% Fibonacci retracement would take us to - 1297!  Bingo, isn't that where we bounced off of yesterday? 

Indeed it is!  Fibonacci levels to watch - 1297, 1274 and then 1256 - representing a 50% retracement on the upside - 1325. 

On the corp. side we will hear from the likes of:  LLY (Eli Lily) 0.81 cts,  XOM (Exxon) $1.98, UPS $1.25, CIT 0.04 cts, ETR (Entergy) 0.89 cts, MAT (Mattel) $1.00, BXP (Boston Properties) $1.19, AMZN 0.16 cts,  VLO (Valero Energy) -0.11 cts, PFE (Pfizer) 0.47 cts  AND  X ( US Steel) -0.85 cts…a broad range of companies that should offer a bit  more insight into a range of sectors and the health of the US economy.     

From an international perspective – we are getting all kinds of macro data  from our friends around the world: Japan housing starts, Germany – retail sales and unemployment, France – producer prices and consumer spending, Hungary to report unemployment and  Spain to report CPI, Italy is next to report unemployment, followed by the ECB which will report on regional unemployment.  

Then off to Latin America where we see Brazil release industrial production while Chile reveals latest unemployment.  Canada jumps in the mix and reports monthly GDP. 

In the US – we are expecting Case Shiller housing index - exp are for a 3.3% decline in housing prices, and US consumer confidence.  To close out the day – we move back to Asia and get South Korean consumer prices. 

Don’t expect any of this though to offer any REAL direction for the mkts.  We (global mkts) will continue to be HELD HOSTAGE by Hercules, Aphrodite, Apollo, Hermes, Prometheus, Athena, Zeus and Poseidon…and Lucas Papademos as he discloses that he cannot “exclude the possibility that his country will need more help – on top of the new $170 bil bailout and a deal with private investors to slash its debt”.

Get a load of this – “it’s too early now to say whether we will need some extra public funding…”; and this morning there is no word on a deal because as it is being reported - was NOT ON THE AGENDA TODAY.  Not on the agenda???  Have they lost their minds?

The warning was clear 3 yrs ago – Greece was a time bomb waiting to explode.  In mid-2009, a draft report from the IMF sounding the alarm bell was squashed as it exposed the Greek situation for what it was. 

Greece was unhappy with having their pants pulled down and went to the IMF to complain.  The final report, though critical, was not honest about the risks that Greece might one day default – taking Europe down the drain with it, and potentially the global economy.

It is exactly this pattern of denial that brings Greece (and Portugal, Ireland, maybe Italy and Spain too) to the brink while the Euro zone struggles to survive, all the while holding the rest of the world in suspense.

Overnight in Asia - mkts cautious...as they lie in wait: Japan +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.7%, China +0.2%, ASX -0.3%.

In Europe - mkts are once again in rally mode.  All mkts currently showing +1% gains.  Angela claiming success on moving Europe closer to a fiscal union, Optimism that the Greek Gods will convince investors to take the hit, German unemployment better than expectations.  Both Italian and Euro zone unemployment higher than expectations, but the mkt is ignoring.

Futures are +8 again - churning and consolidating.  Earnings today represent companies so heavily weighted in the averages that good news will cause the avgs to move higher as any significant moves in these blue chip companies (will cause a feel good mood in those industries) creating an exponential move in those avgs. 

So far, about 80% of industrials, tech, healthcare, materials, are beating estimates: 60% of energy, financials, cons discretionary, utilities and telecom are missing estimates; forward guidance has been neutral to negative.  Do not forget - Grease! is still the word.

Take good care –
KP

Tiri Saganaki me Tiganita Avga – it’s all Greek to me……

Greek Fried Cheese– the way this is going – forget the meat and fish….you might have just enough money to buy some Gruyere Cheese……and a dozen eggs….

You need 6 eggs, Gruyere Cheese, 1 cup of flour and some olive oil. 

Mix the flour with 2 beaten eggs to make a kind of paste.  Now take the cheese pieces and dip in water and then the flour mixture….Set aside until all the cheese is coated. 

Now in a frying pan – heat up some olive oil and fry the cheese…do not let it melt…just enough so that it is golden brown.  Remove and set aside…now fry up some eggs and you are done! 

Fried eggs and cheese…..The Greek version of "Green eggs and Ham" !

Enjoy -

Don’t Buy a Home OR Home Builder Stocks! Says Schoenberger - from Yahoo! Finance

Renting these days and thinking of buying a home?  Don't do it!  Unless...well, watch the clip from Yahoo! Finance and I'll tell you what you need to do if you buy a home these days.

Followers of LandColt Trading know how I feel about the housing market.  But--and this is the big but--I actually predict when I believe the bottom will occur.

Take a look, forward to a friend, and be sure to leave a comment with the Yahoo! Finance team and let them know what you think. 

 

 

Quotes Only from the Best - on CNBC.com

This is from Thursday when S&P Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall and I were on CNBC together to give our thoughts on the markets and what to expect in 2012.  We were also quoted in the key market article of the day on CNBC.com.

Take a look at what we said in print, and then go ahead and check out a copy of our segment from the floor of the NYSE.  Good stuff, as always.  And be sure to forward to a friend.  Thank you.

Stocks End Lower as Fed Optimism Fizzles - CNBC.com

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Market Rally Over? 4 Stocks to Ride Out a Downturn - from Yahoo! Finance

Just because I think the market will give up 35% this year, doesn't mean I don't see opportunities--you just need to look (or hear from those who may be able to help).

In this segment on Yahoo! Finance, Jeff Macke and I discussed a couple of potential stocks to consider this year.  Take a look, and for the full breakdown of the companies I mention, click here for the entire article.

And, as always, be sure to forward this clip to a friend.  Thank you and enjoy...

 

Remarkable Performance! LandColt Trading Precious Metals +18.3% YTD

Think of it this way--

There are 253 trading days in 2012 (one more due to leap day).  We've traded on 18 of them.  And, the LandColt Trading Precious Metals Model has turned in a whopping 18.34% return.

Yes, that would be a 1% gain for each trading day, thus far.

We were told by two very reputable hedge funds that they can't use this model because the performance is "too good".  Seriously.  Well, for the sake of our current subscribers and investors, we're going to continue trying to repeat the past 18 days throughout the rest of the year.

For those interested in learning how to use the Precious Metals model, simply go to our website at www.LandColtTrading.com for subscription information.  And, for those looking for a professional money manager to utilize the models in your behalf, be sure to visit www.TheBlackBayGroup.com.

And, for your review...

LandColt Trading Precious Metals since inception (3/8/2010): +73.71%

As always, call or email us if you have any questions.  We can be reached in our Delaware offices at 302-827-2993 or via email at info@LandColtTrading.com.

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Talking Markets & Money with Michelle, Bill & Sam on CNBC - from the NYSE

In case you missed it, here's the clip from Thursday's Closing Bell on CNBC.  I was paired up with my friend, S&P Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, and we discussed the markets and what to expect for the year.

Be sure to take a look, forward to a friend, and send in a comment (or two) about yours truly.  CNBC's comments webpage can be found by clicking here.

Thank you and enjoy...

 

Market Rally Takes a Breather After “Knee Jerk” Reaction to the Fed - from Yahoo! Finance

In case you missed it--and you would be in the minority if you had--here is the first of three clips I did with Jeff Macke of Yahoo! Finance.  But, as it seems from the comments section, I must've hit a nerve because everyone seems to have an opinion on the current state of this market.

But you take a look, and be sure to forward to a friend.  And, if you're not up for leaving a comment on the site, shoot us one on Twitter.  Jeff's Twitter handle is @JeffMacke and mine is @TMSchoenberger.  And, while you're at it, be sure to follow us.

Thanks and enjoy...

 

Talking Fed, Finances and Football with Remy Blaire of the NYFP

In case you missed it folks, here's a clip of my one-on-one with Remy Blaire of the New York Financial Press.  Take a look, forward to a friend and please send in a comment to tell NYFP what you think.

Their email is contact@nyfp.tv.  Thank you!

Enjoy...

 

In Need Of A George Soros Gingko Biloba Drug: Wake-Up Call for 1/27

Still digging out from a ton of work, so posts have been limited.  I had another productive day on the media circuit, and will be posting videos/articles shortly.

For now, here is today's Wake-Up Call.  Be sure to sign-up for your own FREE subscription.  Simply send an email to info@LandColtTrading.com with the word 'SUBSCRIBE' in the subject line and we'll take care of the rest.

Thank you and enjoy...

In Need Of A George Soros Gingko Biloba Drug

By: Kenny Polcari, Expert Contributor

I love this - did you hear Larry Summers?  Here is a new financial phrase sure to be beaten to death - ESCAPE VELOCITY.  Really??  Who exactly is Larry Summers talking to?? 

In physics Escape velocity is - The speed at which the kinetic energy plus the gravitational potential energy of an object is zero.  It is the speed needed to "break free" from a gravitational field without further propulsion. (as defined in Wikipedia)  

Ve = Sq Root of 2GM/r.  Is he kidding us?  What train is he on?? 

Then George Soros - who at 82 yrs old (Born on Aug 12, 1930 in Budapest, Hungary) says that sometimes the mkts do not always get it right and a Greek default would not be a big deal.

Ok, let's think about this - Georgey is 82 yrs old.  He's right (as he said - he is on the side of the ANGELS) - for him it's no big deal!!!  He is on the 18th hole…game over!!!  I mean at some point - you gotta talk to people who might actually be on this planet when Greece goes belly up!

So - Did it feel a little like a hangover?  All the excitement of late and no carry through?  Although the mkt did not crash - it did take a breather.  Did the traders figure out that it was a sell the news event? 

All month long, the mkt moved higher on the expectation that they would get help from the Fed – and they did – so now what???  Initial Macro Economic reports were good - right?  Durable goods, Chicago Fed, Cap Goods…then they began to get weaker - Init jobless Claims, Cont Claims, then Leading Eco Indicators and then they fell off the edge.

Housing!!  Surprise!  But is it really?  Housing weakness is NOT a new phenomenon.  New home sales fell 14K more than the expectation and avg home prices – down again.  With the new Fed program in place – the cost of living is on the rise - food and energy moving higher, while the biggest asset that most American's own continues to lose value.    

Who really expected housing to show improvement?  Will this bad report be the scapegoat for profit taking?  Or was it the technical resistance level of 1325? Mkt tried to pierce it, backed off and tried again.  When it failed, traders figured it was time to take a bit off the table and wait for the pullback.

But it is only churning.  We hit resistance and backed off - we did NOT crash at all; so the mkt continues to find its footing.  No worries.  The mkt has had a fairly substantial move on no real fundamental change with no real pullback...so no surprises here.

Today we got 4th Q GDP, and the expectation is for a very bullish report – the mkt consensus is for 3% growth – that would be up 1.2% over the 3rd Q.  Can’t wait to see how they make this report work? In fact, it came in at 2.8% close but no cigar, futures turn lower, approaching 1310.  

Remember this number will be revised two more times before we get the final read.  So use caution - go with your gut - remember - Benny just said that he remains "concerned". 

While all the noise kept building around the Fed and earnings – did anyone notice that Obama “requested” an increase of $1.2 tril in the US debt ceiling?  So much for the limit imposed last August when the debt ceiling debate was raging, DC was in shambles and S&P downgraded US credit.  At that time we were assured that we would not have to talk about the debt ceiling until 2013.

Well ok.  We DIDN’T talk about it – it got pushed to the back pages while the media has focused on earnings, the Fed and the WEF.  So as of today – the debt ceiling is now $16.4 tril and the gov’t is spending money like a drunken sailor.

Currently - our debt is $15.3 tril and the new limit is $16.4 tril and we spend money at the rate of $125 bil a month.  So if you take out your calculator you will quickly realize that $1.1 tril/$125 bil = about 9 months.  Buy your tickets now to the greatest show on Earth...or is that for the Circus?  (I forget).

Asian mkts ended the week mixed no major moves overnight.  In Europe this morning mkts are in slightly negative territory churning and waiting, and the clock ticks...

Take good care.

KP

This morning - I am featuring a recipe that was sent to me by a very dear friend - Her name is Susan and for anyone that ever watched CNN - you know who she is....

Polenta with Wild Mushrooms - now for those of you who do not know it - Polenta is ground cornmeal...and again was considered a peasant dish.  Today - you can find Polenta at some of the finest restaurants as they have realized that done the right way - it is a fantastic alternative to pasta, stuffing or rice and if you are gluten free - this is right up your alley.   

For this you will need:  1 c of quick cook Polenta, 4 c of chicken broth, 1 c of grated Parmegiana, olive oil, 1 lb of assorted mushrooms - shitake, Portobello, cremini, chanterelles etc. (washed, trimmed and sliced), 1 tbsp of fresh thyme.  (I would add a dab of butter - but hey that's me.)

Begin by stirring 1 c of stock into the polenta - bring the balance of the stock to a boil - then reduce heat to simmer and introduce the polenta slowly - stirring as  you add.  Cook until it has thickened - should be about 10 mins....

Next add the Parmegiana cheese - season with s&p (go easy on the salt because you have the cheese)...Cover and keep warm. 

Next - heat a bit of olive oil in a frying pan and sauté the mushrooms and thyme until the mushrooms have released their juice and the juice begins to evaporate - season with s&p.

Serve a portion of the polenta - (can be a vegetarian main dish or can be a side dish) and top with the sautéed mushrooms.

Buon Appetito 

One-on-One with Diane Macedo...

What's driving the markets??  How about your money??  Or, what about Superbowl predictions??

Yeah, yeah baby!  I got it...right here.

Here's a partial clip from yesterday's appearance on Fox News Live.  I spoke one-on-one with Diane Macedo about all of the above-mentioned topics and more.  See for yourself and send in a note to FOX to let them know: redeye@foxnews.com

Thank you and enjoy...

 

Don't Live in Dallas?? No Worries - iTunes has The Wall Street Shuffle radio segment

From Monday--I was on The Wall Street Shuffle--a rushhour radio show aired in the Dallas/Fort Worth market.

It's a great clip, very easy to listen to, and a must-forward to your friends.  So, take a listen, and feel free to send in a comment as well.  Email for comments is comments@thewallstreetshuffle.com

Thank you and enjoy...

The Wall Street Shuffle - Monday, January 23rd

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

When Occupy Apple Pie is Bigger than SOTU: Wake-Up Call for 1/25

As promised, folks!  Here is today's Wake-Up Call.  Be sure to sign-up for your own FREE subscription by sending an email to info@LandColtTrading.com with the word 'SUBSCRIBE' in the subject line.  We'll immediately add you to the distribution list.

Worried about privacy?  Don't be.  LandColt Trading doesn't sell, rent, barter, etc., email addresses and personal information.  For more, you can review the firm's Privacy Policy by clicking here.

And, feel free to forward to a friend!  Thank you...

When Occupy Apple Pie is Bigger than SOTU
By: Kenneth Polcari, Expert Contributor

Ok - so first the good news!  AAPL absolutely blows the roof off the house.  As usual, anything Apple is in great demand.  Numbers were "Herculean".  
 
Profits more than doubled - phenomenal in fact - earning surged 118% thanks to Iphone 4S, Ipad, Macbook...Ipod...do I need to go on?  Stock is UP 7% in premkt trading...$452...jump on! 
 
Guidance says that 2012 is going to be a MONSTER year as new products releases will replace the older versions, and the mania continues.  Tim Cook, CEO uses words like "breathtaking" while admitting that they can NOT keep up with global demand.
 
Back to reality.  So, did you see the State of the Union (#SOTU) speech?  Thoughts?  How's that working for you?  It's campaign 2012 in all its glory.
 
Obama envisions an America "Where everyone gets a fair shot..."  Did I miss something?  Once again - he lays out a vague plan: wants the wealthy to play by the same rules.  Ok - I hear you, but guess what Mr. President - the wealthy PLAY by the rules in the book - the playbook that Congress/Lobbyists/Legislators (you included) created.  The wealthy are NOT doing anything illegal so stop pandering and say it for what it is.
 
If you want to make it fair - then you have to throw out the tax code and start from scratch: Throw out the lobbyists and special interests and do something dramatic - LEAD the country.  Do not make it sound as if one segment of the country is behaving illegally.  They are not and Mitt Romney has to stand up and set the record straight.
 
Speaking of behaving illegally - did he say last night that he wants to BAN INSIDER TRADING for members of Congress?  What a novel idea...
 
By definition - Insider Trading means - the buying or selling of stock or other securities by individuals with access to non-public information about a company obtained during the performance of the insiders duties breaching a fiduciary relationship of trust & confidence.  Do I need to go on?  I could, you know...but back to the mkts.
 
FOMC began the 2 day meeting yesterday, and with little guidance - stocks once again hung in the balance as the European discussions continue.  It seems that the 50% haircut negotiated last October is not enough. 
 
Really? 
 
70% seems to be the new number but that's not working as the private investors are not willing to go there.  Help me out - when you invest - there is this thing called Risk/Reward - right?  Investing is risky; the players know that - so guess what?  Cut the BS!!  It won't be pretty but it is the way of the world.  Everyone wants to be protected while at the same time they want to make a killing.
 
You cannot have it both ways.  Either you invest and assume the position or you put your money in treasuries.  If there is not risk then there should not be a reward.  It is investing 101.  The only question is - how orderly or disorderly will it be? 
 
Today we will hear from the FED a couple of times - at 12:30 we get the rate decision - then around 2 ish we get Uncle Benny to answer a few questions and then around 4 we will get an interest rate forecast. 
 
The Fed has already stated that interest rates will be kept low for an extended duration, so what are we looking for?  Can you say QE3?  The hunt is on.  The text will instantly be scanned for any hint of stimulus in any of the multiple forms it might take and when Benny is interviewed you can be sure that the reporters will be lined up to ask about QE3 - not once or twice - but over and over again.
 
Just trying to hear if he slips...What form will it take?  Because institutional traders have been waiting (patiently) on some direction about a QE3-type program, stocks will likely move lower IF Uncle Benny says nothing.
 
On the other hand, if he is concerned about the pace of the recovery and leaves open the door for additional stimulus, then stocks will find their footing and begin the trek forward.

Today we get a slew of eco reports - Mort Apps, Pending Home sales and the FED decision along with a monster day of earnings.

In Asia - most mkts continue to be closed for the holiday: Japan +1.2% and ASX +1.1%.  Apple earnings are good news for the Asian economies, but with most mkts closed it is hard to get an honest read.

In Europe - mkts all lower right now as a batch of disappointing earnings and rising bond yields in some of the peripheral countries put pressure on the mkts.  Declines in financials - mostly French and UK banks are leading mkts into negative territory.  FTSE -0.6%, DAX -0.6%, CAC 40 -1%, Eurostoxx -1.1%.

Futures on the S&P are now lower by 4 pts, trending at 1307.  We remain in purgatory - not knowing which way to go, 1325 remains resistance - while 1300 seems to be support - as we bounced off of it yesterday and held. 

Expect the mkt to reward or punish individual companies as they report while all eyes remain focused on Benny...will he disappoint? 

Take good care -
KP

In honor of Apple - we are making Apple Fritters today.....You can eat these for breakfast or have them as a desert....either way - It's all about Apples!

For a dish like this you need measurements as you are creating a batter to dip the apples in...so this one is more specific.....1 c  flour, 1/4 c sugar, 1 tbsp baking powder,  1 tsp salt, 2 eggs, 1/2 c milk, oil , 2 or 3 apples (peeled, cored and sliced in rings) and confectionary sugar.....You can also add in cinnamon or nutmeg if you like...

Mix together the dry ingredients, in another bowl beat the eggs and add the milk - now blend with the dry ingredients.
In a deep fryer - heat some oil - enough that will allow you to "deep fry" the slices. 

Dip the apple slices in the batter and then deep fry until golden brown.  Remove and place on paper towels to drain - when cooled - "dust" with confectionary sugar.  Arrange on a platter and serve.  If you use as a desert - place the fritter on the plate and top with your favorite ice cream.  I am traditional - so Vanilla always works best. 

Enjoy

Post-SOTU Drama Ends at 9:30. Benny and the Feds are on Deck!

Good Morning, folks!

The Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference was fantastic yesterday.  It was a definite who's who Wall Street event (invite only) at the New Museum.  Lots of palm pressing and biz card distribution.  Can't wait for the next one.

For today, floor traders are talking about the SOTU and the upcoming presser by Bernanke.  Oh yeah, Apple surprised to the upside; but it doesn't seem like any of us were, eh em, surprised.

Earnings and Europe will continue to dominate headlines and, of course, that famous Bernanke press conference.  Look for a status quo market until mid-afternoon.

Posting the Wake-Up Call shortly.

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Good Morning! Lotsa Earnings on Deck, Romney/Gingrich Ticket Almost a Certainty

Good Morning, folks!

We have a TON going on today--Tuesday, January 24th.  Earnings from MCD, AAPL, J&J, Yahoo! to name a few.  You can add in a lot of Fed talk, plus tonight's SOTU address to set market direction.

Stay tuned.

Last night, we had another GOP debate and the lovefest between Romney and Gingrich is taking another stage of heartfelt bliss.  Look for these two knuckleheads to announce a duo in the coming months--only, which one will take the top spot??

Egos, lotsa big egos!!

I'll be at the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference today, with media appearances in between.  Not a lot of posts, so follow on Twitter for immediate updates:

http://www.Twitter.com/LandColtTrading

http://www.Twitter.com/TMSchoenberger

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com