Happy New Year! Sorry, for the lack of posts. The firm is in a distinct transition (in other words--the interns we had from the fall are now gone, and we're back-filling with spring semester interns.). So, several administrative items (i.e., blog posts) are being delayed.
We should be back to normal by tomorrow!
For now, though, here is today's Wake-Up Call for your review. Feel free to send to a friend and sign-up for your own free subscription by sending an email to Info@LandColtTrading.com with the word 'SUBSCRIBE' in the subject line and we'll add you to the list asap.
Thanks again and enjoy...
When The Golden Cross Replaces The Golden Parachute
By: Kenneth Polcari, Expert Contributor
Is it time to break open the Dom Perignon? So remind me again? What happened?
Stocks exploded higher as energy and financials led the way…(classic bottom fishing). Positive global data ignited the rally; mkts were begging for a directional driver and they got it yesterday. In the US – both the ISM and construction spending blew the roof off the house (or that is what you were led to believe) while Australia and Germany also reported better macro data points.
The recession story fades, and although Europe is still in a bind (Luxembourg's PM Junker says that "Europe is on the brink of recession") - uncertainties surrounding the continuing Arab spring movement and more recently the noise out of Iran - mkts couldn't be bothered. And even though the ISM numbers here in the states appears to stabilize both the European and Chinese reports indicate contraction vs. expansion.
Sign says: "Caution Ahead. Floor slippery when wet"
Futures were giddy jumping 23 pts in early pre-mkt trading. The tone was set and nothing was going to stop it; the early move pierced the 1265 level that we could not pierce last week. Stocks gapped up and then nothing really - they just churned.
No real follow thru but the clear breach of 1265 signaled a technical breakout. Resistance is at 1290 ish. Don’t fight the tape – ride the wave for now. As my friend Mike C pointed out on Twitter – “the mkt is climbing a wall of delusion.”
This morning we wake up to shares of Unicredit under intense pressure (down 8%) as the bank was forced to sell shares at a 43% discount to current mkt value to raise some $10 bil. ECB lending at another all-time record only accentuating the financial tensions in Europe, Hungary and now Turkey showing signs of stress.
Rick Perry to return to Texas to lick his wounds and re-consider his presidential bid; Michelle to give it the old college try in one more race as she is running out of funds. Rick Santorum basking in the glow of his recent showing gaining momentum going into the next round. Asian mkts turned cautious after opening stronger as recent strength caused some profit taking in those mkts.
As is typical the first of the year - Blackstone vice chairman – Byron Wien makes a few bold predictions for 2012 noting that any one of his predictions has a 50% chance of occurring: Oil falls to $85 barrel – yesterday it closed at $103 and looks like it wants to go higher, US GDP exceeds 3% growth as consumers drive the economy – when in 2015? Next - is that the Euro zone gets their head together and actually comes up with a long range realistic plan.
We should only hope…
The S&P will best 1400 as earnings grow and leaders take advantage of lower commodity prices and decreasing labor costs (read continued layoffs in the US while shifting jobs overseas) and computers become the weapon of choice for the “new terrorist.” Hackers find their way into the financial system causing short term bank closings while the G20 meet to solve the problem; and I suppose that confidence in the system and in G20 leaders is so high that investors just ignore this major breach and carry on.
Has he lost his mind?
On the geopolitical front – the vise is tightening around Iran as US sanctions begin to hurt them economically. The Iranian Riel is down some 60% vs. the dollar and the Iranians are feeling it.
Obama signs into law the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012 which includes crippling sanctions on financial institutions that do business with Iranian Central Bank – this act mandates military detention without charge or trial of American Citizens for an indefinite period of time…sounds like Martial Law to me. Can you say WWII?
Technically – the mkt closed some 19 pts above its 200 DMA. It must hold here - above the 200 DMA to convince asset managers that this is real and not some knee jerk reaction. The question is – Can it?
Well watch for the “Golden Cross” – when the 50 DMA pierces the 200 DMA from below - this has not happened yet – but it appears only days’ away if the mkt holds here. If we see this then that will offer additional confirmation of a new bullish trend. On the other hand – we did not see real volume yesterday on such a big move; a bit more than last week – but clearly nothing near where we need to see it. Could the buyers be waiting for the “cross” before they commit?
Overnight in Asia mkts end mixed - Japan +1.2%, Hang Seng - 0.8&, ASX +1.8%, China -0.2%.
In Europe – Mkts there are all lower right now showing some signs of profit taking as new signs of financial stress hit the headlines: Mixed PMI results, record use of the ECB lending facility, more chatter of a general malaise in economic outlook. FTSE - 0.09%, DAX -0.7%, CAC 40 -0.8% and Eurostoxx -1.3%.
US Futures are lower by 3 pts trading at 1268, holding here but looking for direction yet again. Will we see some profit taking? - I think so.
Economic data today include mortgage apps - should see an increase as the recent housing data is supposedly improving, Factory orders exp of 2% and Domestic Vehicle Sales exp of 10.4 mil (annualized). Tomorrow we get much more eco data that should continue to paint an improving picture so ride the wave and look to lighten the load as we approach 1290/1300.
Take good care –
KP
Farfalle al Forno con Aragosta e Tre Formaggi- Sounds delicious no? When it rolls off your tongue it’s almost like foreplay......I mean can you just hear it?? You gotta roll the R's......
This is one of those dishes that you will now see in a fancy restaurant - they will charge you $18 a plate.... – It’s chic, it’s international, and it is delish……Today’s recipe features cheeses from Switzerland, England and Italy and lobster from Maine – this is NOT your mother’s Mac and Cheese.
You will need: garlic, butter, lite cream, steamed lobster meat cut into bite size pieces, pasta (your choice: Farfalle, but feel free to be creative - Penne, Mostaciolli, Gemelli, Conchigliette, Orechiette, Rotelle…you get it right?) and equal parts of grated gruyere (Swiss), Cheddar (English) and Parmegiana (Italian).
Preheat oven to 350 degrees
In a sauce pan – add in crushed garlic clove and lite cream – bring to a boil and then turn off the heat, add the lobster meat and let it rest.
In a pot of salted boiling water – cook the pasta for 8 mins or so – until aldente. Strain – return to the pot. Toss with a stick of melted butter to coat well. Next add in the lite cream/lobster, the gruyere and the cheddar. Mix well.
Pour the macaroni into a lightly greased baking dish and top with the grated parmegiana cheese. Bake for about 20 mins or until golden brown.
Buon Appetito
Stocks exploded higher as energy and financials led the way…(classic bottom fishing). Positive global data ignited the rally; mkts were begging for a directional driver and they got it yesterday. In the US – both the ISM and construction spending blew the roof off the house (or that is what you were led to believe) while Australia and Germany also reported better macro data points.
The recession story fades, and although Europe is still in a bind (Luxembourg's PM Junker says that "Europe is on the brink of recession") - uncertainties surrounding the continuing Arab spring movement and more recently the noise out of Iran - mkts couldn't be bothered. And even though the ISM numbers here in the states appears to stabilize both the European and Chinese reports indicate contraction vs. expansion.
Sign says: "Caution Ahead. Floor slippery when wet"
Futures were giddy jumping 23 pts in early pre-mkt trading. The tone was set and nothing was going to stop it; the early move pierced the 1265 level that we could not pierce last week. Stocks gapped up and then nothing really - they just churned.
No real follow thru but the clear breach of 1265 signaled a technical breakout. Resistance is at 1290 ish. Don’t fight the tape – ride the wave for now. As my friend Mike C pointed out on Twitter – “the mkt is climbing a wall of delusion.”
This morning we wake up to shares of Unicredit under intense pressure (down 8%) as the bank was forced to sell shares at a 43% discount to current mkt value to raise some $10 bil. ECB lending at another all-time record only accentuating the financial tensions in Europe, Hungary and now Turkey showing signs of stress.
Rick Perry to return to Texas to lick his wounds and re-consider his presidential bid; Michelle to give it the old college try in one more race as she is running out of funds. Rick Santorum basking in the glow of his recent showing gaining momentum going into the next round. Asian mkts turned cautious after opening stronger as recent strength caused some profit taking in those mkts.
As is typical the first of the year - Blackstone vice chairman – Byron Wien makes a few bold predictions for 2012 noting that any one of his predictions has a 50% chance of occurring: Oil falls to $85 barrel – yesterday it closed at $103 and looks like it wants to go higher, US GDP exceeds 3% growth as consumers drive the economy – when in 2015? Next - is that the Euro zone gets their head together and actually comes up with a long range realistic plan.
We should only hope…
The S&P will best 1400 as earnings grow and leaders take advantage of lower commodity prices and decreasing labor costs (read continued layoffs in the US while shifting jobs overseas) and computers become the weapon of choice for the “new terrorist.” Hackers find their way into the financial system causing short term bank closings while the G20 meet to solve the problem; and I suppose that confidence in the system and in G20 leaders is so high that investors just ignore this major breach and carry on.
Has he lost his mind?
On the geopolitical front – the vise is tightening around Iran as US sanctions begin to hurt them economically. The Iranian Riel is down some 60% vs. the dollar and the Iranians are feeling it.
Obama signs into law the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012 which includes crippling sanctions on financial institutions that do business with Iranian Central Bank – this act mandates military detention without charge or trial of American Citizens for an indefinite period of time…sounds like Martial Law to me. Can you say WWII?
Technically – the mkt closed some 19 pts above its 200 DMA. It must hold here - above the 200 DMA to convince asset managers that this is real and not some knee jerk reaction. The question is – Can it?
Well watch for the “Golden Cross” – when the 50 DMA pierces the 200 DMA from below - this has not happened yet – but it appears only days’ away if the mkt holds here. If we see this then that will offer additional confirmation of a new bullish trend. On the other hand – we did not see real volume yesterday on such a big move; a bit more than last week – but clearly nothing near where we need to see it. Could the buyers be waiting for the “cross” before they commit?
Overnight in Asia mkts end mixed - Japan +1.2%, Hang Seng - 0.8&, ASX +1.8%, China -0.2%.
In Europe – Mkts there are all lower right now showing some signs of profit taking as new signs of financial stress hit the headlines: Mixed PMI results, record use of the ECB lending facility, more chatter of a general malaise in economic outlook. FTSE - 0.09%, DAX -0.7%, CAC 40 -0.8% and Eurostoxx -1.3%.
US Futures are lower by 3 pts trading at 1268, holding here but looking for direction yet again. Will we see some profit taking? - I think so.
Economic data today include mortgage apps - should see an increase as the recent housing data is supposedly improving, Factory orders exp of 2% and Domestic Vehicle Sales exp of 10.4 mil (annualized). Tomorrow we get much more eco data that should continue to paint an improving picture so ride the wave and look to lighten the load as we approach 1290/1300.
Take good care –
KP
Farfalle al Forno con Aragosta e Tre Formaggi- Sounds delicious no? When it rolls off your tongue it’s almost like foreplay......I mean can you just hear it?? You gotta roll the R's......
This is one of those dishes that you will now see in a fancy restaurant - they will charge you $18 a plate.... – It’s chic, it’s international, and it is delish……Today’s recipe features cheeses from Switzerland, England and Italy and lobster from Maine – this is NOT your mother’s Mac and Cheese.
You will need: garlic, butter, lite cream, steamed lobster meat cut into bite size pieces, pasta (your choice: Farfalle, but feel free to be creative - Penne, Mostaciolli, Gemelli, Conchigliette, Orechiette, Rotelle…you get it right?) and equal parts of grated gruyere (Swiss), Cheddar (English) and Parmegiana (Italian).
Preheat oven to 350 degrees
In a sauce pan – add in crushed garlic clove and lite cream – bring to a boil and then turn off the heat, add the lobster meat and let it rest.
In a pot of salted boiling water – cook the pasta for 8 mins or so – until aldente. Strain – return to the pot. Toss with a stick of melted butter to coat well. Next add in the lite cream/lobster, the gruyere and the cheddar. Mix well.
Pour the macaroni into a lightly greased baking dish and top with the grated parmegiana cheese. Bake for about 20 mins or until golden brown.
Buon Appetito
