Here is yesterday's Wake-Up Call e-newsletter folks! Be sure to sign-up for your own free subscription by sending an email to info@landcolttrading.com with the word 'subscribe' in the subject line. We'll make sure you receive your first edition on Tuesday morning.
Enjoy...
Greek Deal has Traders Believing
By: Kenneth Polcari, Expert Contributor
Wednesday – Dow down 100 pts; Thursday - Dow up 123 pts. It is teasing the Dow 13,000 level. The S&P is sitting right on the July ’11 highs – to make history it has to beat the May ’11 high of 
1370. The debate rages on, will it or not?
Well - if the Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, BoE and any other central bank has anything to do with it – we can expect that the mkt will continue to move higher. It seems that they are determined to say or do anything to get you to believe.
Perfect example yesterday – New home starts – surged. The surge came from multi-family RENTAL units vs. single family homes, but why discuss that? It is easier to say that the report "surged".
More dramatic, Init jobless claims fell to 348k – well below the 365k expectation. Again, I think that is great if it went along with real Job Creation. A drop in init jobless claims does NOT equate to JOB CREATION; temporary or low paying jobs will not in the long run make us healthier or more competitive.
A drop in claims just means that fewer people submitted claims – some did get a "job", some just fall off the rolls and others run out of benefits so they can no longer claim. So the question is - Which was it? (Again more dramatic to say the report FELL w/out further analysis)
Mkts around the world rallied a bit yesterday as investors appear to be more comfortable with the pending “implosion” of Greece – KIDDING! Apparently Greece is no longer in “danger” as noted in the German newspaper – Die Welt. The story claims that the ECB is ready to swap its Greek Bonds for new bonds that have an extended maturity date, giving the Greeks a bit of breathing room.
Can you say “KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”? The European finance ministers have set yet another date (Monday Feb 20th) to vote on the 130 bil Euro bailout…so the mkt moves on…
US macro data is clearly heating up, numbers are coming in stable to higher. That is a good sign for sure - but we are not out of the woods yet.
And, as usual, the mkts rev up too fast and as we have been saying - the juice offered up by global central banks only help create this manufactured rally. Zero interest rates for how much longer? So where is an investor to go? The Fed has forced you into the risk trade.
Today we get some more macro data - CPI or the Consumer Price Index - which is the measure of price inflation in retail and services. Mkt sensitivity is "very high" to this report. It is one of those "red hot" reports that the street will dissect as it determines what we as consumers will be paying for goods and services.
Overnight in Asia - mkt rallied. Headlines in local papers read: US jobless claims hit a 4 yr low - Better than Expected Housing Starts and Greece! Brought back from the edge.... A report that the EU gov'ts are considering further cuts to interest rates on the emergency loans to Greece only added to the excitement as mkts closed out the week. Japan + 1.6%, China + 0.2%, Hang Seng +0.9%, ASX +0.3%.
In Europe this morning - mkts on a tear as investors in Europe are cheering the deal to save Greece. Have we seen this picture before? Get all excited and then get left holding the bag? Could this really be the true? Have not heard anything of late from the private creditors - where do they stand? FTSE +0.3%, DAX +0.8%, CAC 40- + 0.9%, Eurostoxx +0.8%.
The mkt is +0.4% for the week. We began the week at 1342 - challenged the 1355 level, backed off and are now teasing it again. Don't forget - US mkts are closed on Monday, and with a pending Greek deal on the table for Monday - mkts may remain subdued today as we wait for any headline that may become the next directional driver.
Fundamentals are out (for now). Headlines are in, as the mkt continues to churn higher - many of the long funds are feeling like they missed it (the rally)...so? What to do, What to do?? If they jump in now - then expect the shorts to run for cover - do you see where this is going? That huge mkt short position really becomes buying demand, and the world spins.
Take good care - Enjoy the weekend.
KP
Today's recipe? Was going for something Greek - but I had a last min request from a dear friend in
London for something fishy.....Salmon in fact - so Ian - Here you go...try the
Pan Roasted Salmon with Lemon Herb Butter on a Bed of Spinach....
You need: Salmon, s&p, or your favorite seasoning, olive oil, herb butter (see directions below), wild rice, spinach.
Make the lemon herb butter - see below.
Cook the wild rice according to directions
For the salmon - take out of fridge - rinse and allow to come to room temperature. Brush with olive oil on both sides - season liberally with s&p or your favorite salmon seasoning. In a sauté pan - heat up 1 tbls of olive oil and place the filet - skin side down - turn heat to med/med low and let cook for about 6 min....now turn over and let cook for another 3 mins.
A general rule of thumb is that it should cook for 8 mins per inch of thickness - but ultimately - you know how you like your salmon. In a separate pan - steam some fresh spinach and drain. Add a bit of your herb butter to the spinach.
Once cooked -make a bed of spinach on a warmed plate, place the salmon on top of the spinach and add a dollop of you herb lemon butter on the salmon. Add some of the wild rice and serve immediately. A glass of chilled white wine and you are done.
Buon Appetito
Well - if the Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, BoE and any other central bank has anything to do with it – we can expect that the mkt will continue to move higher. It seems that they are determined to say or do anything to get you to believe.
Perfect example yesterday – New home starts – surged. The surge came from multi-family RENTAL units vs. single family homes, but why discuss that? It is easier to say that the report "surged".
More dramatic, Init jobless claims fell to 348k – well below the 365k expectation. Again, I think that is great if it went along with real Job Creation. A drop in init jobless claims does NOT equate to JOB CREATION; temporary or low paying jobs will not in the long run make us healthier or more competitive.
A drop in claims just means that fewer people submitted claims – some did get a "job", some just fall off the rolls and others run out of benefits so they can no longer claim. So the question is - Which was it? (Again more dramatic to say the report FELL w/out further analysis)
Mkts around the world rallied a bit yesterday as investors appear to be more comfortable with the pending “implosion” of Greece – KIDDING! Apparently Greece is no longer in “danger” as noted in the German newspaper – Die Welt. The story claims that the ECB is ready to swap its Greek Bonds for new bonds that have an extended maturity date, giving the Greeks a bit of breathing room.
Can you say “KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”? The European finance ministers have set yet another date (Monday Feb 20th) to vote on the 130 bil Euro bailout…so the mkt moves on…
US macro data is clearly heating up, numbers are coming in stable to higher. That is a good sign for sure - but we are not out of the woods yet.
And, as usual, the mkts rev up too fast and as we have been saying - the juice offered up by global central banks only help create this manufactured rally. Zero interest rates for how much longer? So where is an investor to go? The Fed has forced you into the risk trade.
Overnight in Asia - mkt rallied. Headlines in local papers read: US jobless claims hit a 4 yr low - Better than Expected Housing Starts and Greece! Brought back from the edge.... A report that the EU gov'ts are considering further cuts to interest rates on the emergency loans to Greece only added to the excitement as mkts closed out the week. Japan + 1.6%, China + 0.2%, Hang Seng +0.9%, ASX +0.3%.
In Europe this morning - mkts on a tear as investors in Europe are cheering the deal to save Greece. Have we seen this picture before? Get all excited and then get left holding the bag? Could this really be the true? Have not heard anything of late from the private creditors - where do they stand? FTSE +0.3%, DAX +0.8%, CAC 40- + 0.9%, Eurostoxx +0.8%.
The mkt is +0.4% for the week. We began the week at 1342 - challenged the 1355 level, backed off and are now teasing it again. Don't forget - US mkts are closed on Monday, and with a pending Greek deal on the table for Monday - mkts may remain subdued today as we wait for any headline that may become the next directional driver.
Fundamentals are out (for now). Headlines are in, as the mkt continues to churn higher - many of the long funds are feeling like they missed it (the rally)...so? What to do, What to do?? If they jump in now - then expect the shorts to run for cover - do you see where this is going? That huge mkt short position really becomes buying demand, and the world spins.
Take good care - Enjoy the weekend.
KP
Today's recipe? Was going for something Greek - but I had a last min request from a dear friend in
Pan Roasted Salmon with Lemon Herb Butter on a Bed of Spinach....
You need: Salmon, s&p, or your favorite seasoning, olive oil, herb butter (see directions below), wild rice, spinach.
Make the lemon herb butter - see below.
Cook the wild rice according to directions
For the salmon - take out of fridge - rinse and allow to come to room temperature. Brush with olive oil on both sides - season liberally with s&p or your favorite salmon seasoning. In a sauté pan - heat up 1 tbls of olive oil and place the filet - skin side down - turn heat to med/med low and let cook for about 6 min....now turn over and let cook for another 3 mins.
A general rule of thumb is that it should cook for 8 mins per inch of thickness - but ultimately - you know how you like your salmon. In a separate pan - steam some fresh spinach and drain. Add a bit of your herb butter to the spinach.
Once cooked -make a bed of spinach on a warmed plate, place the salmon on top of the spinach and add a dollop of you herb lemon butter on the salmon. Add some of the wild rice and serve immediately. A glass of chilled white wine and you are done.
Buon Appetito
