LandColt Trading

Talking Greece, Ketchup, Soup, and Spring Training one-on-one with FOX News' Tracy Byrnes

How is Greece going to play out in the coming weeks on Wall Street??  I talked one-on-one with Tracy Byrnes of FOX News about it.

See for yourself.  And, be sure to forward to a friend, and send a note to FOX and let them know what you think (about yours truly, of course).  Email for comments is Cavuto@FoxNews.com.

Thank you and enjoy...

 

Good Morning! The Lindex is at a High, but S&P Futures Point to a Sell-off

Good Morning, class!

Yes--a double double for Jeremy Lin last night.  The Knicks are now at .500 and seem to be the hottest team in the NBA.  Lin is the Cal Ripken of the league--literally saving it after the lockout.

Lots going on today.  A big travel day for yours truly, and lots of macro data to go through.  at 8:30, we have Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and Producer Prices.  At 10, we have the Philly Fed Index--which puts me in Philadelphia for analysis, media, etc.  Lotsa fun!

Wake-Up Call will be distributed shortly.

Oh, and by the way, the next game for the Knicks is Friday night against New Orleans.  And--Melo is back.  Stay tuned!

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Maybe Jeremy Lin can Broker a Deal with Greece: Wake-Up Call for 2/15/2012

Knicks win...Knicks win...Knicks win!!

Back to .500 baby!  And Lin finishes with a double-double.  Very nice!

To celebrate, we're posting today's Wake-Up Call for your review.  Yes, it's late at night, so you should definitely sign-up for your own FREE subscription so you receive the WUC earlier than...say...near midnight!

To sign-up, simply send an email to Daily_Market_Opinion@LandColtTrading.com with the word 'subscribe' in the subject line and we'll take care of the rest.  Thank you and enjoy...

Maybe Jeremy Lin can Broker a Deal with Greece
By: Kenneth Polcari, Expert Contributor

So much to say - but so little time.  Enter stage left - China pulls a rabbit out of the hat.

PBoC (People's Bank of China) Gov Zhou commits China to expand its investments in Europe assuring the mkts that they will NOT cut exposure during this time and in fact would like to play a BIGGER role in this developing crisis...and the rally's on!! 

Stocks in Asia loving this news - because in fact - a blow up in Europe (China's biggest export partner) would drag the global economy lower and this includes China - but now with this commitment - China is helping the world and themselves.  Who would have thought??? 

Did you see the headline in the WSJ today?  Apple's Size Clouds the Markets; and in fact many analysts are now taking the tech giant out of the calculation to get a clearer picture of the health of the economy and guess what they found???  With Apple - S&P 500 earnings are poised to rise some 6.6%.  Take Apple out and the growth rate drops to 2.8%.

And within the tech sector alone, earnings growth rates would go from 21% to 5%.  So the broader picture is not so strong.

But this just re-iterates that weakness and will give Uncle Benny the green light to initiate QE3…and BOOM!  Risk on!!!  This weakness was made clear yesterday when we reported retail sales.

We had a fairly big miss on retail sales – the very report that was supposed to prove all of the previous “better than expected” macro reports – reports that showed the consumer was back!  Shoppers taking to the streets, and to the malls, reaching into their pocketbooks and screaming – CHARGE IT!   

Not so fast! The Commerce Dept reported that retail sales rose 0.4% in January, consensus was for a 0.8% rise.  The soft results were due in part to a plunge in vehicle sales, an indication that consumers may not be so “ready” amid a still-shaky economy.  

See - improvements in manufacturing at year end 2011 were credited to auto manufacturers who built cars for the tax credits - which then caused dealers to buy new cars for their lots.  This counted as a retail sale – even though no one really bought it.

So “retail sales” showed improvement last month this in turn gives the illusion that the economy is improving.  But yesterday we learned that Auto dealers are cutting back on their car purchases, which causes retail sales to plummet.  Can you say “smoke and mirrors”?   Isn’t that a kick in the pants?   

The weak economic data, combined with the continued uncertainty in Europe, was a perfect reason to hit the pause button.  The mkt is beginning to become a bit more cautious, almost nervous to the news. 

We take two steps forward and then 1.5 steps back; and then central banks around the world announce more stimulus programs forcing fundamentals out the window and manufacturing a global rally.  YTD global mkts all showing great gains: Dow +5.4%, S&P +7.3%, NASDAQ +12% (apple), FTSE +7%, DAX +17%, CAC 40 +9%, Japan +7%, ASX +10%.

And the list goes on...

This morning mkts around the world are ignoring the Greek tragedy.  Yesterday afternoon word had it that the Wednesday meeting in Brussels was called off because the politicians could not deliver. Antonis Samaras would not sign, arguing that the austerity programs demanded will only worsen the crisis.

See – this is the IMPLEMENTATION issue.  Mkt began to head south, in the last 20 mins – all of a sudden – the turnaround…what gives?  

Well – a late report gave word that the leaders will in fact deliver on the promise as they took Samaras into the “romper room” and the computers lit up and took the mkt to a flat position by 4 pm.

Patience is wearing thin, tempers are flaring.  Time is of the essence!  What are the chances that there is any agreement at all today? (no matter what China says).   

Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Junker said: "I did not yet receive the required political assurances from the leaders of the Greek coalition parties on the implementation of the program,''  The Troika is demanding signed personal commitments from anyone who might have any authority in the current gov’t. 

Dutch Finance minister Jan Kees de Jager – was very clear that his gov’t will NOT accept any half measures from Athens…and the world turns.

Can there really be a natural correction that reflects the real current economic conditions and risks when central banks keep getting in the way? 

Today – besides Greece – traders in the US will be watching and listening to what Uncle Benny has to say at 2 pm.  It seems that it is not IF but WHEN exactly will we begin QE3?

On the Economic pages we will get Empire manufacturing today and expectations are for continued strength, Ind Prod of 0.7%, Cap Util of 78.6%. 

News out of Europe this morning include a devastatingly weak view of the zone, (giving support to additional central bank stimulus) 4th Q GDP shows a recession in Italy -0.7%, Netherlands -0.7%, Germany -0.2%, Austria -0.1%, France +0.2%.

Eurozone as a whole contracted 0.3%.  UK unemployment at a 16 yr high of 8.4% putting UK AAA rating at risk...and the world turns.

US futures are up 8 trending at 1355 - this is key resistance, and with all of the latest stimulus packages announced we are in a position to pierce it.  If so - 1375 is next stop.

I hope that the Fed doesn't run out of money...

Take good care.
KP

Today we are going Spanish - Cuban really with a recipe that is easy to make yet when you translate the name - you might give it a second thought.....

Rope Vieja- literally translates into "Old Clothes" - .it describes the shreds of beef, peppers, onions, carrots that reminded someone at some point long ago of shredded clothing.....this is a staple in the Island Nation of Cuba...and although my wife hails from the Island Nation of Puerto Rico - she makes an incredible Ropa Vieja -Enjoy....
 
You start with Flank Steak - that you braise in a pot for about 1 - 1 1/2 hrs  with water, carrots, onions, celery, s&p.  Remove and let cool - strain the liquid - making sure to press on the veggies to release the last bits of flavor....return to pot and reduce to about 4 cups of liquid.  With 2 forks - shred the flank steak - pulling it apart and leaving it stringy. 
 
In a heavy skillet - sauté julienned red & yellow peppers, onions,  & garlic, until soft - add the shredded beef, a can of tomato sauce (not paste) and one cup of the braising liquid.  Add frozen peas and pimento stuffed Spanish olives (cut in half).    Season with s&p, and a bit of oregano.  Cover and let simmer....

Put on some Spanish music - Can you just feel the sand between your toes....the Ocean splashing you in the face?
 
This dish should be served over rice - either plain white rice or yellow rice....
  
Buen Provecho - this literally means that "you deserve to eat well" - it is a simple two word phrase that would be the equivalent of Buon Appetito.

It's All About Jeremy Lin - and probably explains why Futures are Higher

Good Morning, folks!

If you're not aware of the Jeremy Lin hoopla, then you are completely out of touch.  Everyone is talking about it, and the Knicks did it again last night when Lin drained a 3 with 0.5 seconds left against Toronto.

You know there is something special going on when the home team crowd is cheering for the visitors--who happen to be a team from New York--and erupt with passion when the Knicks win.  Absolutely crazy?!?  No!  It's Lin-sanity!

Knicks are back at The Garden tonight.

Back to the markets--we had a sudden turnaround late in the trading day yesterday when news broke that a deal is in "the works" between Greece and its creditors.  Just like Valentine's brings out the suckers, traders fell for the same cat-and-mouse game and bid stocks higher.  The markets finished flat, but the euphoria continues this morning.

Futures are higher, signaling a sharp rally at the open.

Stay tuned...

A big announcement is coming out of LandColt Trading today.  Lots of changes--so, keep checking back here for instant updates or follow us on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/LandColtTrading.

Thank you.

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com
• http://www.Twitter.com/TMSchoenberger

 

Happy Valentine's Day! Futures Flat, Retail Sales on Deck. Lin-sanity at a High!

Good Morning, class!

Tons happening today, and it's not just because it's Valentine's Day.  LandColt Trading recently hired a Vice President of Sales and the announcement is expected later this afternoon.  This news will certainly move the dial, and will come as a gigantic surprise to many on Wall Street. 

Details coming soon.  So, stay tuned...

Retail Sales figures are due out at 8:30am, ET.  Traders are keeping a close eye on this print.  Again...stay tuned and keep it here for instant analysis.

Lin-sanity is all the rage these days.  Knicks are in pointless Toronto tonight before returning to MSG tomorrow.  Look for the hoopla to continue for the timebeing, and hopefully deep into the playoffs.

Until later...

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Dow Logs Worst Day of 2012 Amid Greek Drama - Comments from CNBC.com

Happy Saturday, folks!  Hope everyone is having a good start to the weekend.

I need to just get this out of the way because the topic is dominating the Twitter Tape and national/global headlines--

GO KNICKS!

And, I suppose...GO HARVARD!

If you don't know what I'm talking about, simply go to NewYorkPost.com for a complete update.

Ok--on to the markets.  The Dow and S&P closed lower for the week.  The DJIA gave up 0.47% and S&P 500 loss 0.17%.  I'll post the weekly returns for the LandColt Trading Models later today.  At first glance, it looks like the Precious Metals Model posted a weekly gain, which shouldn't come as a great surprise considering its wonderful YTD performance so far.

JeeYeon Park wrote an excellent summary, and of course--had quotes from yours truly.  Take a look and feel free to forward to a friend.  Thank you!

Dow Logs Worst Day of 2012 Amid Greek Drama - CNBC

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Soda Wars: Coke vs. Pepsi - from Thursday's Cheryl Casone Show on Fox Business

Here's one clip from today--trying to obtain the rest.  But, this is a good one nonetheless.  We're talking soda (not road soda, mind you), oil (yawn), and frisbee throwing in LA (receiving a fine...seriously).

Take a look, forward to a friend, and send in a comment to Casone@FoxBusiness.com.  She LOVES receiving notes, so definitely drop her one (about yours truly, as well).

Thanks and enjoy...

 

What Took So Long?? 2013 Superbowl Predictions are Out! Where is Your Team?

I'm guessing the oddsmakers in Vegas are either 1) hungover, 2) drunk, or 3) not thinking.

The 2013 predictions are already out...and, it seems Vegas is going out on a limb here...predicting the New England Patriots to win the 2013 Superbowl.

Seriously??

Even funnier is how the Philadelphia Eagles are picked to finish close to the top.  Oh, and don't even get me started about the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Everyone knows the only team the NFL needs to worry about is the Baltimore Ravens.  As coach John Harbaugh recently said, "The only thing we need to worry about is repeating as 2014 Champs!"

See where your team stacks up:

Patriots Are Favored To Win 2013 Superbowl with Champion Giants at 8-1 - Bloomberg

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com

Labor Picture, Markets Score A Touchdown: Wake-Up Call for 2/6

Oh, it's a sloooow-moving Monday.  Post-Superbowl malaise!  Market volume is very low and even the Twitter Tape is progressing like a turtle.

My friend, Lauren Simonetti, tells me 7 million people will call in "sick" today.  That's what...5% of all Americans with a job?!?  Wow.

Well, one thing is still working--and that's the LandColt Trading Wake-Up Call.  Take a look and be sure to forward to a friend.  And, if you wish to receive your own subscription delivered daily to your email inbox, simply send us an email to info@LandColtTrading.com with the word 'subscribe' in the subject line and we'll make sure you receive the next day's edition.

Thank you and enjoy...

Labor Picture, Markets Score A Touchdown
By: Kenneth Polcari, Expert Contributor

According to legend - a Giants win should see the stock mkt end the year higher than current levels.  So, get on board!
 
Here we go again: Friday's non-farm payroll report, 243k vs. exp of 150k.  I mean better by 100k jobs and unemployment goes to 8.3%.  A couple of questions…
 
A.  How do all of these analyst's miss the report by 67%?  I mean none of them had close to this number...and stop with the seasonality story or the warm weather story; these were no surprise.

B.  Does the fact that 1.2 mil people dropped out of the workforce - causing the unemployment rate to move lower mean anything?  If they keep cutting 1 mil people off the workforce - we will be at full employment by November.

C.  How come the 1.7 mil people that become "eligible" for the workforce are not counted?  Is that because they have never had a job so officially cannot be counted as unemployed? 
 
Yes the jobs number makes you think that we have turned the corner, and stocks pulled out all the stops - nothing holding them back at all as the S&P rallies towards the May high of 1365.  All is good in the world - there is barely a hint of bearishness at all with the DOW Industrial bullish %age reaching an amazing 97%.
 
THE UGLY - Economic propaganda.  It started last week with the 4Q GDP - they used a 0.4% inflation rate rather than a more realistic 2.5% inflation rate, adding more than 2% phony GDP to the reported 2.8% GDP.  And, Friday's payroll report is cutting people from the labor force in numbers never seen before.
 
The "ugly" is "intentional" government manipulation of economic data to fit a political agenda rather than economic reality.  We are experiencing economic propaganda all in the name of a re-election campaign.  Regardless of how the numbers are massaged, they will affect stock prices, and investors are going to be forced to participate regardless of how you feel about underlying economic strength. 
 
In a strong warning to congress, President Obama used the better-than-expected jobs report to hammer home his message of recovery: Obama welcomed the strong jobs report and urged Congress to extend a payroll tax cut and benefits for long-term unemployed, which expire at the end of this month. "Now is not is not the time for self-inflicted wounds to our economy. I want to send a clear message for Congress. Do not slow down the recovery that we are on, don't muck it up,"
 
The odd downside from all of this "great" economic data is this: Uncle Benny looks a bit foolish now for recently proclaiming zero interest rates through 2015 because of a struggling recovery and an ongoing European Debt Crisis, (which no one seems to be concerned about anymore).
 
Didn't anyone at the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) consult with him on what they were going to do before he stood up and discussed his concern going forward?  How is he going to come up with an excuse for another round of QE when the data points to an improving economy?  Seems to me that he is between a rock and a hard place.
 
Technical speaking - we blew right thru 1325 (resistance).  They have now tattooed BULL all over the place.  While this could be a top of a long-running rally, the government data machine coupled with an accommodating Fed liquidity machine means that new cash flows are going to find their way to the asset that can appreciate the quickest and that means commodities and equities. 
 
Never mind the fundamentals.  Be prepared to establish new longs or build on current longs on any pullback in prices - assuming that any pullback is not a meltdown.  Economic risks have not gone away - but the trend is your friend and you can't fight the fed.

Overnight in Asia - mkts moved higher as they played catch up.  The deteriorating political situation in Iran and Syria along with the lack of a plan on the Greek debt crisis did little to cause risk aversion: Japan +1.1%, China +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.2%, ASX +1.1%.  China hinting at possible support for the EU as they stand to get hit hard by any breakdown of debt talks.

In Europe this morning - mkts all moving lower as the reality of a failed Greek proposal dominates the headlines; French stocks down over 1%, European banks all in negative territory and banking officials showing reservations about some of the chatter.  ECB deposit facility back near record highs.  FTSE - 0.2%, DAX -0.8%, CAC 40 -1%, Eurostoxx -0.7%.

In the US - futures are down some 5 pts - trending at 1333, not unexpected after Friday's move.  Look for 1325 to become support as the mkt churns and builds a base, all eyes continue to focus on Greece.

Early word has it that Greece is getting ready to announce a deal - "details to be worked out" - (this is like a broken record).  Today we get a dozen or so earnings reports and NO economic data, so the focus will be on individual company earnings as well as the broader global macro picture as long as there is not a breakdown.

The mkt will not move significantly one way or the other...again...it feels like it wants to test 1325 (support) and then challenge the highs of 1365 and will do so barring any major negative macro data.   A 5 point pullback (or 1/3%) is nothing to be concerned about.  The S&P is up 7% since Jan 1 while the NASDAQ is up 11%.

Use any pullback to add to positions, and use any test of 1365 to lighten up.

Take good care -
KP

Ok...so lets just get it out of the way....Yes the NY Giants won the Super bowl....the Patriots lost in the last 4 mins of the game....eerily reminiscent of 2008........so today I have to feature Manhattan Clam Chowder ( and I would have given you New England Clam Chowder had the Pat's won)...

For this you will need:  Minced clams, water, clam juice, diced tomatoes, chopped onion, chopped carrots, chopped celery, diced potatoes, olive oil & s&p.

In a large saucepan - add bit of olive oil and add in the carrots, onions, and celery....sauté for 5 - a 10 mins....

Next add in the clam juice, diced potatoes, diced tomatoes and water.  Cover and simmer for 30 mins.....Stirring occasionally.  Using a hand blender - blend some of the ingredients to thicken the chowder while leaving some of the ingredients intact.  ....Now add in the minced clams continue to simmer for 10 mins....Serve immediately with oyster crackers. 

Enjoy

Slow Moving Morning; Greece Deal in Place; Futures Down; Ticker Tape Parade in NYC

Good Morning, folks!

Congratulations to the New York Giants!  Just goes to show you--if your team only wins 9 in the regular season and makes it to the playoffs, it has just as much of a chance to win it all as any other team in the postseason.  Excellent game--can't wait for the parade!

The commercials were a bit uneventful.  However, the Clint Eastwood/Chrysler commercial was the highlight of the night.  If the GOP had Dirty Harry, it may have a chance in October.  Well done ad!

The halftime show was also a bit uneventful.  And, this rapper--MIA--have you ever heard of her before??  Yeah, probably not.  Which leads me to believe, the middle finger showing was intentional and well-planned.  All we're talking about is MIA, and I'm certain she--and her bank account--are loving the attention.

On to the markets: Greece has somehow persuaded its creditors to take a 70% haircut on Greek bonds.  70 cents on every dollar just went poof.  Guess the Greeks promised a lifetime supply of feta.

Market follow-through from Friday's awesome jobs number will be difficult today.  People are hungover and this Greek deal seems to be what was whispered--and, therefore, expected.  Futures are lower at the moment.

More to come--stay tuned.

Talk soon,

• Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
• www.LandColtTrading.com