Good Morning, folks! Sorry for the missing posts yesterday--big meetings in NYC and a couple of media hits, as well. One, from Bloomberg, will be posted shortly.
Until then, here is today's Wake-Up Call. Be sure to sign-up for your own free subscription to The Call by sending an email to info@LandColtTrading.com with the word 'subscribe' in the subject line and we'll take care of the rest. Thank you.
Wall Street is Looking to Leap for Free Fuel
By: Kenneth Polcari, Expert Contributor
First, I have to give a shout out to Margaret Brennan of BB TV - In Business with Margaret Brennan - 10 am - 12 pm M – F. The bell rang yesterday at 4:00 pm and at 4:00:05 pm - when it was clear that the Dow was closing above 13K - Margaret tweeted
"DOW closes above 13,000 for the 1st time since 2008. Can we stop talking about it now?"
Yes Margaret - we can stop - at least until the correction comes! Then we will be talking about "blowing thru 13K on our way to 12K!!!
On to the next thing, John Rubens (@raftofwater) tweets me (@kennypolcari) - are we looking at a Doji for the Dow? Now that is an interesting thought and for those of you who do not know what that means, here we go:
In Technical Analysis - a Doji - is a powerful candlestick pattern that looks like a cross or a plus sign in that the closing price is almost exactly in the middle of the day's range. It typically signals INDECISION between bulls and bears.
It does NOT mean necessarily a reversal - it means indecision and is usually a good time to take some profits as the prior trend MAY be losing momentum. You find this type of pattern typically at the top or bottom of a trend - thus it is thought that it is a sign of "possible reversal". The mkt explores both options and then never commits to either, resulting in frustration and anxiety, usually a good time to take some money off the table.
The economic data was mixed. First, the negatives - Case Shiller shows home prices continuing to fall; dashing hopes that we have hit bottom. Prices at the end of 2011 are lower than the '08-'09 crash and in some regions are back to 2002 prices.
Durable goods report wasn't any better. January durable goods orders fell the most in three years (down 4% compared to expectations of a 1% decline), confirming that the improved GDP in the 4Q of 2011 was all smoke and mirrors, reached only by excess inventory purchases.
This drop in durable goods orders also confirms the weakness in the Baltic shipping index, which is at all-time lows, dropping well below both the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA suggesting that manufactured items are not in great demand around the world. Add in the Dow Transports - which only CONFIRMS the disappointing drop in durable goods.
And now the positives - an improving consumer confidence report!! Joe Q Public sees his 401K or IRA moving up in value and he feels good! Things must be improving. Nevermind that gasoline hit $5/gal in California and NY yesterday and no end in sight: "Consumers are considerably less pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center. "Despite further increases in gas prices, they are more optimistic about the short-term outlook."
This morning's ECB LTRO FLOODS the European financial system. The big reveal shows that 800 banks borrowed MORE than the expectation (529 bil Euros vs. 470 bil Euros) signaling that they NEEDED the help; and the ECB obliges.
So the mkt moves higher - why??? Because it is backstopped! Everyone knows that the central banks cannot let the place go up in flames. Where is the risk??? Once again - they force the trade so stocks have nowhere to go BUT up. So climb on board because next stop is S&P 1400!
Overnight in Asia - Risk is On: mkts ended the day in positive territory. Stronger macro data across the region, India, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore...all added to the risk on mentality. Japan +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.3%, China -0.5%, ASX +0.8%.
In Europe - IMF chief Ms. Lagarde - speaking positively about Greece and the strengthening situation. The ECB LTRO program boosting optimism that this second round of easing will "ease"
tensions in the banking system; mkts will continue to dissect the news and trade erratically until it spins the correct story. FTSE -0.16%, DAX +0.3%, CAC 40 + 0.2%, Eurostoxx +0.3%.
S&P Futures were higher initially and have since come back to flat. Dow futures once again trading either side of 13K...do you see the Doji? Indecision continues. Right now the S&P is trending around 1373, and the Dow around 13K. Mkt remains skittish. Uncle Benny to speak at the semiannual Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - no surprises here - just more jawboning.
Remember the old adage - there are Bulls, Bears and Pigs...and Pigs usually get slaughtered. Stay awake.
"DOW closes above 13,000 for the 1st time since 2008. Can we stop talking about it now?"
On to the next thing, John Rubens (@raftofwater) tweets me (@kennypolcari) - are we looking at a Doji for the Dow? Now that is an interesting thought and for those of you who do not know what that means, here we go:
In Technical Analysis - a Doji - is a powerful candlestick pattern that looks like a cross or a plus sign in that the closing price is almost exactly in the middle of the day's range. It typically signals INDECISION between bulls and bears.
It does NOT mean necessarily a reversal - it means indecision and is usually a good time to take some profits as the prior trend MAY be losing momentum. You find this type of pattern typically at the top or bottom of a trend - thus it is thought that it is a sign of "possible reversal". The mkt explores both options and then never commits to either, resulting in frustration and anxiety, usually a good time to take some money off the table.
The economic data was mixed. First, the negatives - Case Shiller shows home prices continuing to fall; dashing hopes that we have hit bottom. Prices at the end of 2011 are lower than the '08-'09 crash and in some regions are back to 2002 prices.
Durable goods report wasn't any better. January durable goods orders fell the most in three years (down 4% compared to expectations of a 1% decline), confirming that the improved GDP in the 4Q of 2011 was all smoke and mirrors, reached only by excess inventory purchases.
This drop in durable goods orders also confirms the weakness in the Baltic shipping index, which is at all-time lows, dropping well below both the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA suggesting that manufactured items are not in great demand around the world. Add in the Dow Transports - which only CONFIRMS the disappointing drop in durable goods.
And now the positives - an improving consumer confidence report!! Joe Q Public sees his 401K or IRA moving up in value and he feels good! Things must be improving. Nevermind that gasoline hit $5/gal in California and NY yesterday and no end in sight: "Consumers are considerably less pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center. "Despite further increases in gas prices, they are more optimistic about the short-term outlook."
This morning's ECB LTRO FLOODS the European financial system. The big reveal shows that 800 banks borrowed MORE than the expectation (529 bil Euros vs. 470 bil Euros) signaling that they NEEDED the help; and the ECB obliges.
So the mkt moves higher - why??? Because it is backstopped! Everyone knows that the central banks cannot let the place go up in flames. Where is the risk??? Once again - they force the trade so stocks have nowhere to go BUT up. So climb on board because next stop is S&P 1400!
Overnight in Asia - Risk is On: mkts ended the day in positive territory. Stronger macro data across the region, India, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore...all added to the risk on mentality. Japan +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.3%, China -0.5%, ASX +0.8%.
In Europe - IMF chief Ms. Lagarde - speaking positively about Greece and the strengthening situation. The ECB LTRO program boosting optimism that this second round of easing will "ease"
S&P Futures were higher initially and have since come back to flat. Dow futures once again trading either side of 13K...do you see the Doji? Indecision continues. Right now the S&P is trending around 1373, and the Dow around 13K. Mkt remains skittish. Uncle Benny to speak at the semiannual Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - no surprises here - just more jawboning.
Remember the old adage - there are Bulls, Bears and Pigs...and Pigs usually get slaughtered. Stay awake.
Take good care -
KP
Chicken Cutlets served in a Lemon Walnut Sauce(In early Roman times was considered Food for the Gods)
This is different and not something that you might put together or even thinks goes together...but it is simple to make and will fast become a family favorite. For this you need:
Boneless Chicken breast - (preferably thin sliced) - if not then you can pound them. Flour, olive oil, (I use butter), fresh chopped parsley, lemon zest, lemon juice, walnuts, diced onion and chicken broth.
Begin by dredging the cutlets in seasoned flour (s&p). Shake the excess off. Set aside.
In a lg frying pan - heat up some olive oil (w some butter) and sauté the diced onion until soft - maybe 8 - 10 mins....Do not burn.
Remove the onions and set aside. Next - add the chicken breasts and brown on both sides.
While browning - chop the walnuts and mix with the chopped parsley and lemon zest - not to much but enough so that you get the flavor....(if unsure - add less and taste..you can always add more).
When the cutlets are browned on both sides - add in the chicken broth - enough to bathe them - do not drown. Add in the onions and about a tblsp of lemon juice - cover and simmer for about 5 mins....
Remove the chicken and set on a warmed serving platter leaving the juice in the pan. Turn up the heat to med hi and add the walnuts/parsley/zest. Allow the juice to thicken a bit - should be no more than 3 mins max. Pour the sauce over the cutlets and serve with roasted potatoes and maybe some sautéed spinach and a large mixed salad dressed in a champagne vinaigrette.
Buon Appetito
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